Cheryl McCloud,Steve PattersonJacksonville Florida Times-Union
In a rush? Here's everything you need to know — in less than a minute — about what's happening in the tropics.
The National Hurricane Center has issued its first advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four that showed a potential path crossing Northeast Florida Monday morning.
Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of Florida ahead of a possible landfall as Tropical Storm Debby along Florida's West Coast over the weekend.
What was originally known as Invest 97L currently is located over eastern Cuba, about 420 miles southeast of Key West, according to the 11 a.m. advisory.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis Thursday declared a state of emergency for 54 of Florida's 67 counties ahead of the storm.
➤ Spaghetti models for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four
"Keep in mind the tropical cyclone will be strengthening as it moves north, so the farther north it gets before landfall, the better of a shot that it has to attain hurricane status," said the National Weather Service Tallahassee.
If sustained winds reach 39 mph, it would become Tropical Storm Debby, the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Where is Potential Tropical Cyclone Four?
- Location: 90 miles east-southeast of Camaguey, Cuba; 420 miles southeast of Key West
- Maximum sustained winds: 30 mph
- Movement: west-northwest at 16 mph
- Next advisory: 2 p.m.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Debby
At 11 a.m., the disturbance was centered near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 76.6 West.
The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph. A turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed is expected tonight or Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north on Sunday.
On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move over Cuba today, cross the Straits of Florida on Saturday, and then move near or over the west coast of Florida Saturday night through Sunday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph, with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 70 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90 percent.
How will Potential Tropical Cyclone Four affect Jacksonville?
Friday, the National Weather Service in Jacksonville projected numerous scattered showers across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia on Saturday, but said Sunday’s weather would depend on what happens in the Gulf.
Models showed “quite a bit of disagreement” about the strength of the system, the weather service said, but added “ample moisture in the area coupled with this feature will provide increased chances for heavy rainfall over the region as it makes its way through.”
The system's track, timing, and intensity will depend on how much interaction with land it has over the next few days. Whether it's stroing or not, ay development "could hang around through the week and increase chances for heavy rainfall," the weather service said.
Jacksonville City Hall is prepping first responder response teams and clearing drainage systems in low-lying areas to get ready for storm impacts, city spokesman Phil Perry said in a release Friday.
Spaghetti models: Latest models on where Potential Tropical Cyclone Four could make Florida landfall
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Tropical storm watches and warnings issued for portions of Florida
A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
- Southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach.
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
- The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas .
- The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge.
- The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Potential impact from tropical cyclone
WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida west coast Saturday night or Sunday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Aripeka to Card Sound Bridge, 1-3 feet
- Tampa Bay...1-3 feet
- Charlotte Harbor...1-3 feet
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 12 inches, across portions of Florida and near the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning. This rainfall could result in areas of flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible.
What impact can Florida expect from Invest 97L
"Downpours and gusty thunderstorms will spread westward across Cuba and the western islands of the Bahamas on Friday before spreading over the Florida Keys and the southern part of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday.
"Along with the potential for urban flooding will be the risk of waterspouts and hazards for beach and boating interests, at the very least," AccuWeather said.
"As the system approaches and begins to strengthen, rip currents will increase in strength and number along the Florida coastline this weekend.
"Should the storm stay east of Florida, the rough surf conditions will spread northward along the Atlantic coast. If the center migrates farther to the northwest, then surf conditions will build along the Gulf Coast."
Florida Gov. DeSantis issues state of emergency for 54 counties
Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a state of emergency Thursday in preparationfor the potential landfall of a stormthat could become the first "significant threat" to the state.
In apost on X Thursday afternoon, DeSantis said "Florida is monitoring Invest 97L in the Atlantic, which is expected to strengthen and potentially make landfall as early as this weekend. It will be slow-moving and bring lots of rain that could cause significant flooding. I encourage all residents to prepare for the storm and follow all guidance issued by@FLSERTand local emergency management officials."
National Weather Service forecasts for Florida, what to expect and when
Rain chances will increase across the Florida Peninsula. Rainfall estimates range from 2 to 4 inches and as high as 8 inches. The strongest storms could produce gusty winds, and heavy downpours. Multiple rounds of heavy downpours could create the potential for localized flooding.
Forecasters urge all residents to continuemonitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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